Search results for "CDS spreads"
showing 6 items of 6 documents
How credit ratings affect sovereign credit risk: cross-border evidence in Latin American emerging markets
2017
This article builds upon previous literature by providing a better understanding of how contagion changes in bordering sovereign CDS emerging markets resulting from credit rating events. To that end, we follow the novel GVAR methodology using data from six Latin American emerging countries during an extensive sample period from 2004 to 2014. Our findings show evidence for the existence of significant and asymmetric cross-border effects. In particular, a competition effect is observed before the event occurs, indicating that non-event countries suffer (benefit) from upgrades (downgrades) in Brazil, Mexico and Chile (in Argentina and Brazil). In contrast, an imitation effect is observed after…
Do sovereign ratings cause instability in cross-border emerging CDS markets?
2020
We analyse the cross-border transmission effect of credit ratings on sovereign CDSs covering a broad sample of emerging countries during the period 2004 to 2015. This study differentiates between the spillover and competition effects between and within geographical areas of emerging countries. We find substantial evidence of cross-border effects with asymmetric responses to upgrades and downgrades. The market reaction differs across regions, reflecting how the international and local impact of rating events are due to different types of effects. At the international portfolio level, the competitive effect is dominant over the spillover effect. Negative events in Asia benefit Africa (which i…
Credit risk transmission in the European banking sector: the case of the subprime and Eurozone debt crises
2014
El objetivo del presente trabajo es analizar en profundidad la transmisión del riesgo de crédito, aproximado por los CDS spreads, en el sector bancario europeo durante el periodo 2006-2012, intentando dar respuesta a diversas cuestiones: (i) ¿existe evidencia de transmisión del riesgo de crédito entre las entidades financieras europeas de la Eurozona y las que no pertenecen a dicha zona?, (ii) ¿es esta transmisión bidireccional o unidireccional?, (iii) concretamente, ¿qué países han liderado dicha transmisión?, y (iv) ¿cómo se ha visto afectada dicha transmisión con las recientes crisis financieras? Los resultados indican un cambio significativo en la transmisión del riesgo de crédito con e…
Volatility spillovers in the European bank CDS market
2015
From the 2007 subprime crisis to the recent Eurozone debt crisis,the banking industry has experienced terrible financial instabilitywith increasing volatility levels of bank default probability. UsingEuropean CDS spreads data from January 2006 to March 2013, thispaper sheds light on the impact of three recent significant events ofcredit risk volatility transmission between, firstly, Eurozone andnon-Eurozone banks, and then between distressed peripheral andcore countries inside the Eurozone. We employ an asymmetricmultivariate BEKK model to measure cross-market volatility spil-lovers. We find that both recent crises are distinct episodes. Theglobal financial crisis that originated outside Eu…
Contingent convertible bonds for sovereign debt risk management
2015
We consider convertible bonds that contractually stipulate payment standstill, contingent on a market indicator of a sovereign's creditworthiness breaching a distress threshold. This financial innovation limits ex-ante the likelihood of debt crises and imposes ex-post risk sharing between creditors and the debtor. Drawing from literature on contingent contracts, neglected risks, and bank CoCo, we extend prevailing arguments in favor of sovereign CoCo (S-CoCo). We discuss issues relating to their design: which market trigger, market discipline and sovereign incentives, and errors of false alarms or missed crises, and provide supporting evidence with eurozone data and a simple simulation on t…
Portfolio diversification in the sovereign credit swap markets
2018
We develop models for portfolio diversification in the sovereign credit default swaps (CDS) markets and show that, despite literature findings that sovereign CDS spreads are affected by global factors, there is sufficient idiosyncratic risk to be diversified. However, we identify regime switching in the times series of CDS spreads and spread returns, and the optimal diversified strategies can be regime dependent. The developed models trade off the CVaR risk measure against expected return, consistently with the statistical properties of spreads. We consider three investment strategies suited for different CDS market participants: for investors with long positions, speculators that hold unco…